Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Phalodi satta bazar bets on NDA getting less than two-thirds majority

Phalodi, a small town in the Jodhpur district of Rajasthan, popular as the key centre of election-related betting, or satta bazaar (grey market), has started trimming its bets on the BJP-led government.

Currently, the bets are on BJP getting 303 seats – similar to its 2019 tally –from 330-335 seats predicted earlier. The NDA is expected to get 340-350 seats – less than the two-thirds majority. The Congress party is expected to secure around 50-51 seats.

This change can be attributed to negotiations by other parties within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), low voter turnout and to some extent the Supreme Court verdict on electoral bonds.

Currently, the satta market is offering a rate of 1:1 for BJP securing 300-303 seats, meaning that a bet of Rs 1 would yield a profit of Rs 1. However, for 320 seats, the rate is 2.25, indicating a higher risk. Hence, a bet of Rs 100 on 320 seats would result in a profit of Rs 225. Sources suggest that bets placed significantly higher or lower than the standard rate are less popular in this election betting.

For Congress, the rate is 1:1 for 50-51 seats, but 1:3 for 60-61 seats.

Two main factors are contributing to the BJP’s slower progress this time. First, the voter turnout in the first two rounds of voting for 190 seats has been lower than expected. Although the Election Commission late on Tuesday significantly revised upwards the initial voter turnout of 61-62%, the impact has been minimal. A higher voter turnout was expected to benefit the ruling alliance, but the heatwave is believed to have deterred voter participation.

The Supreme Court’s ruling on electoral bonds has also dented the ruling party’s reputation, according to sources in the Phalodi satta market.

Current indications suggest that the BJP may lose some seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but gain a few in Uttar Pradesh.

It is worth noting that in the 2019 general elections, the BJP-led alliance secured more seats than predicted by the satta market. However, at that time, the wave of support for the ruling party following its response to the Pulwama attack two months before the election had a significant impact.

A source from the satta market mentioned that a less than two-thirds majority for the NDA could also have a ripple effect on other markets, such as the equity market, as it may impact some of the major reforms proposed by the BJP-led government.

If the predictions are accurate, it would mean that Prime Minister Modi’s call for “abaki baar 400 paar” (over 400 seats in the ongoing Lok Sabha election for the BJP-led NDA alliance) is unlikely to be achieved.

Phalodi, a small town in the Jodhpur district of Rajasthan, is known for its salt production and extreme temperatures. Despite its size and below-average literacy rate, it is the largest illegal market where people from across the country gamble on election results and cricket matches.